Obama’s speech last night was pretty good. Notone of his best, but at least he largely avoided the empty New Age-y appeals he was making in January. He was focused on what he would do as President and very adeptly contrasted himself with McCain. I did notice he referred to his primary opponents as “men and women”, which seemed a bit odd to me. Maybe he’s knows something about Chris Dodd that we don’t.
He also very overtly signalled that the rumors that the Obama camp are inclined towards giving Hillary the HHS position were true. If so, the Obama camp is grasping for the worst of both worlds position visa vie reconciliation with his primary primary opponent. Perhaps he has taken the Lincoln analogy a bit too strongly to heart. Back then, because the Senate was selected and not elected, leaving the Senate for the Cabinet was a pretty good deal (because a: the Senate was less prestigious and b: it was easy to reclaim one’s Senate position if you were in good standing with the party that controlled your state). But now, you would have to be crazy to leave a Senate seat for life for a 4 year stint in the Cabinet. The Senate is much more influential now and, more importantly, its much harder to get back in after you leave, because the voters have to become involved. Plus, with the centralization of the executive around the the Presidency, giving Cabinet members far less independence policy-wise, the lower ranking Cabinet positions (anything but State, Def, Treasury, and possibly Attorney General) have become just plum positions for unemployed politicians. They also don’t lead to anything after they are through. Remember that Tommy Thompson was both a popular governor and Bush’s fairly successful HHS Secretary, which allowed him to barely outlast Jim Gilmore in the also-ran catergory this primary season. An established Senator remains fairly prominent in that body until they die, retire, or widen their stance.
All this is to say that the Obama offer is certainly nowhere near as gracious as the Obama camp seems to think it is. It is worse than what Hillary gets automatically if they were to offer nothing, so it is effectively equivalent to a snub in that regard. But, since they are very blatantly trying to make concessions to her, they also lose the moral benefits that would come from an out-and-out snub. If he were to turn her down completely, it would show off his political fortitude, which is seen as a major weakness for him, as well as underscore how he is truly turning a new page in Washington. For the past 16 months he has been characterizing Clinton as the candidate of the past and the status quo, and any attempt to co-opt her now into his coalition undercuts that argument. Any attempt to co-opt her thus has to appear truly generous, to help unify the party, to show that he’s a different kind of politician, and to win over some embittered Clinton supporters before they start clinging to something else. His current mushy-middle approach has no upside and retains both downsides.
